Tioga, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

498
FXUS63 KBIS 160220
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
920 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to below freezing temperatures return to the northwest
  tonight. The highest probabilities for low temperatures below
  freezing temperatures are Monday and Tuesday nights.

- High chances (60 to 80 percent) for showers and a few
  thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. The highest
  chances are during the day Sunday. There is a chance of
  Isolated severe weather in the southern James River Valley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Winds have greatly diminish over the past hour or so, with many
locations across western and central North Dakota having dropped
to around 15 to 20 MPH, gusting up to 30 MPH. A few sites remain
a bit stronger, though these sites will also follow the weakening
trend through the remainder of the evening and overnight. Thus,
Wind Advisory across western and central North Dakota has been
allowed to expire on time. With the decreasing winds, and with
the increasing relative humidities across the forecast area,
fire weather conditions have improved greatly. The Red Flag
Warning has also been allowed to expire. Currently, isolated
weak radar returns linger over portions of the northwest and
north central, mainly along a cold front dropping in out of
Canada. These, too, have greatly diminished this evening, with
little to no additional rainfall or thunder expected. Otherwise,
patchy dust will remain possible through the evening as winds
continue to relax.

UPDATE
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Strong winds persist across much of western and central North
Dakota at the time of this early evening update. While we have
likely already started to settle down from peak mixing,
observations across portions of the north and central still
remain well above advisory criteria, with speeds up to around
35 MPH and gusts up to 55 MPH, while the southwest is
marginally at criteria. Notably, we have had a few isolated
observations of gusts as high as 60 MPH where showers and a
thunderstorm or two has developed. Occasional visibility
reductions have also been observed in the north central, though
a tour of NDDOT and NDAWN cameras indicate that these have been
fairly brief in duration and limited in spatial extent,
especially compared to yesterday. With this update have opted to
extend portions of Wind Advisory across west and north another
few hours. Winds are expected to rapidly diminish over the next
few hours as the NBL is reestablished. Showers and isolated
storms may also persist into the early evening, especially along
a cold front slowly moving out of the southern Canadian
Prairies, though these too should rapidly diminish with the loss
of peak heating. Otherwise, with this update, have tweaked sky
cover in accordance with satellite trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

An upper level low continues to spin across Manitoba. Windy
conditions continue across the state this afternoon as strong
winds aloft mix down to the surface. Winds are forecast to
diminish this evening across the area. The strongest winds are
across the northern half of the state. These stronger winds have
kicked up dust across southern Manitoba and portions of
Northern North Dakota. There have been some slight visibility
reductions observed in the Rugby Rolla area. Windy and dry
conditions have lead to critical fire weather conditions across
the state, (read the fire weather discussion for more
information). High temperatures this afternoon have warmed into
the 70s to lower 80s across the state. Surface high pressure is
forecast to move across southern Saskatchewan tonight helping
reduce winds. Surface high pressure will also cause
temperatures to drop down into the mid 30s to the mid 40s
tonight which could lead to areas of frost across the northwest
Therefore, a Frost Advisory has been issued for portions of the
northwest.

Tomorrow, temperatures will cool a few degrees in the north
while the the south will remain in the mid 70s. The warmer
temperatures across the south are from a subtle upper level
ridge that will increase heights and traverse across the
region tomorrow. Saturday a broad trough is forecast to dig
across Western CONUS. This will place the Northern Plains in
southwesterly flow aloft. A shortwave trough is forecast to
move through the region Saturday night into Sunday. There is a
chance for some stronger storms clipping the James River Valley
early Sunday. Isolated severe storms should not be ruled out
Sunday across the southern James River Valley. This upper level
system will bring widespread rain across the state with the
southeast seeing the highest amounts. A secondary trough is
forecast to move through the region bring in some more
precipitation through Tuesday morning. There is a high chance
of widespread 0.25 of an inch of rain across much of the state.
We will see how this play out as the high resolution model data
starts to come in.

This wetter pattern will also bring cooler temperatures to
North Dakota. There maybe even a chance of snow Monday night.
Highs will drop down into the upper 40s to 50s Sunday through
Tuesday with even the possibility of freezing conditions Tuesday
and Wednesday mornings. Temperatures could rebound by the
middle of the week as another subtle ridge moves across the
region. The extended ensemble guidance does have a more active
pattern by the end of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 920 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected at all terminals
throughout the 00Z TAF period. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the north through the
evening, though confidence at impacts at any given TAF site are
low. Have opted to keep a TEMPO -RA at KXWA based off of
upstream obs, though these showers may struggle to persist over
the next few hours. Periods of blowing dust may briefly impact
visibility over portions of the north through the early evening,
though these impacts have been limited in both time and area so
far. Confidence in visibility impacts at any give terminals is
low. Strong west winds at at the start of the TAF period are
expected to rapidly diminish through the early to mid evening,
becoming light overnight through Saturday morning. Winds are
expected to strengthen and reorganize out of the southeast
through the day Saturday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NDZ001>003-
009-010-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Adam